36 Adapting to Climate Change

The current rapid rate of climate change and increased variability are decoupling local populations from the climate conditions to which they adapted in the past (Ainsworth et al., 2016; Jump & Penuelas, 2005; Vázquez et al., 2017). The ability of these populations to respond and adapt to new environmental conditions will directly impact ecosystem processes and services at a local and global scale, making some ecosystems vulnerable to transformation (Seastedt et al., 2008). While some populations may tolerate these rapidly changing conditions through standing genetic variation (Barrett & Schluter, 2008; Brennan et al., 2019; Hancock et al., 2011), phenotypic plasticity (Gárate-Escamilla et al., 2019; Reed et al., 2011; Richardson et al., 2017), epigenetic processes (Daxinger & Whitelaw, 2012; Weigel & Colot, 2012), evolutionary rescue through adaptation to new conditions (Anderson et al., 2012; Gonzalez & Bell, 2013), or migration to locations within their climatic niches based on predictive niche models (Loarie et al., 2009), others will not be able to overcome maladaptation to changing local conditions and will decline in abundance and/or be become locally extinct. This urgency has created a need to evaluate appropriate human interventions such as the translocation of individuals with climate-adapted genes and heritable phenotypes (Bay et al., 2018; Butt et al., 2020; Gaitán-Espitia & Hobday, 2021; Vitt et al., 2010; Wilkening et al., 2015).

Text Attribution

This text is from “Applying genomics in assisted migration under climate change: Framework, empirical applications, and case studies” © 2021 Zhongqi Chen, Lukas Grossfurthner, Janet L. Loxterman, Jonathan Masingale, Bryce A. Richardson, Travis Seaborn, Brandy Smith, Lisette P. Waits, Shawn R. Narum and Evolutionary Applications published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd,  which is licensed under CC BY 4.0, except for some minor text editing, which has been added by Trish Corbett.

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Ice Rocks by Joe deSousa on StockSnap is licensed under CC0

Organisms Critical Thermal Temperature Tolerance

All organisms have a critical thermal maximum (CTmin) and minimum (CTmax) within which they can survive. If the temperature is above or below this temperature, particularly if it is for an extended period, this can have significant implications for the population. With temperatures increasing and more regular and longer marine heat waves (MHW – where high ocean temperatures are elevated at a particular site for at least 5 days) organisms will be put under increasing pressure. A number of marine organisms are poikilothermic meaning that they are not able to regulate their own body temperature, making these conditions extremely challenging. Below you can see the CTmin and CTmax for a number of poikilothermic species. If they are not able to adapt fast enough to rising temperatures, they may be at significant risk.

The performance response of poikilotherms to environmental temperature can  be  described  by  an  asymmetrical  concave curve, where relative performance—which could be quantified  changes  in  growth,  reproductive  rates,  activity,  or  other metabolic or physiological changes—is maximized at an optimal temperature  (Topt)  and  declines  to  zero  at  the  minimum  and maximum critical temperatures (CTmin and CTmax, respectively; Figure 1A).

Figure 1. Theoretical thermal performance curve for poikilothermic animals.
Figure 1. (A) Theoretical thermal performance curve for poikilothermic animals. The performance curve uses a Gaussian function to describe the ascending limb of the performance curve from zero at a critical minimum temperature (CTmin) up to an optimal temperature (Topt) and a quadratic decline to zero at critical maximum temperature (CTmax). The parameter σ is the scale parameter of the ascending Gaussian limb of the response curve from CTmin to Topt. (B) Performance curves for a cold-water (cisco), cool-water (yellow perch), and warm-water (bluegill) fish species derived from laboratory-based thermal tolerance studies. Thin lines represent uncertainty in thermal performance curves and are derived from 100 random draws of normally distributed thermal performance curve parameters, where the mean and SD of the normal distribution are based on literature-derived values. Thick lines represent the mean performance curve across the 100 draws. The rug plot shows the density of mean July water temperatures in Minnesota lakes. Silhouette images are from http://phylopic.org/ under creative commons license.

This text, image and its associated caption are from “Predicting climate change impacts on poikilotherms using physiologically guided species abundance models” © 2023 Tyler Wagner, Erin M Schliep, Joshua S North, Holly Kundel, Christopher A Custer, Jenna K Ruzich, Gretchen J A Hansen and published by PNAS, which is licensed under CC BY 4.0.

Marine Climate change adaptations

Watch the clip from CSIRO below to learn more about Marine Climate change adaption.

Genetic diversity loss: Implications of climate change

In the marine environment, anthropogenic impacts have affected genetic diversity in wild populations in numerous ways (Figure 1). Fishing pressures and the selection of certain phenotypes have led to fisheries-induced evolutionary effects such as reduced body size and maturation at smaller body sizes, as well as reductions in genetic diversity through population declines and overharvesting (Heino et al., 2015; Lim et al., 2021; Pinsky & Palumbi, 2014; Price et al., 2019). Evidence of genetic bottlenecks and reductions in effective population size have been identified in Atlantic cod populations (Gadus morhua) from the North-West Atlantic, in Pacific Salmon from British Columbia, as well as in populations of New Zealand snapper (Pagrus auratus) following overexploitation from industrial fishing practices (Hauser et al., 2002; Kess et al., 2019; Price et al., 2019). Notably, reductions of effective population size and losses of genetic diversity were observed within functional regions of the genome associated with migration behaviour in Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), highlighting the potential for overexploitation to affect functional genetic variation and potentially vital adaptive behaviours (Kess et al., 2019).

Loss of genetic diversity has occurred as a result of a number of factors including:

  • Pollution
  • Habitat loss
  • Invasive species
  • Climate change

(Thompson et al., 2021)

The effects of climate change have also been felt keenly in the marine environment. Rising ocean temperatures, increasing acidification, and changing ocean currents are contributing to fundamental and irreversible ecological transformations in marine ecosystems at a global scale (Babcock et al., 2019; Harris et al., 2018; Hoegh-Guldberg & Bruno, 2010). Major losses of genetic diversity have been linked to population declines resulting from both extreme weather events such as marine heatwaves, as well as from more gradual environmental changes, and such events are expected to increase in frequency in the future (Buonomo et al., 2018; Gurgel et al., 2020; Oliver et al., 2019; Simon-Nutbrown et al., 2020; Wernberg et al., 2018). Extreme climate events in the marine environment, such as heatwaves, flash flooding, and chronic stress effects, have already been shown to impact genetic diversity through population losses and bottlenecks, as well as through intensive selection processes (Coleman, Minne, et al., 2020; Coleman, Wood, et al., 2020; Griffiths et al., 2020; Gurgel et al., 2020; Vincenzi et al., 2017). Critically, the impacts of climate stress on many foundation species, such as corals and marine macrophytes, may also impact genetic diversity at the community level through cascading ecological effects (Barantal et al., 2019; Blanchet et al., 2020; Koricheva & Hayes, 2018). However, genetic impacts from acute and chronic climate stress can vary between organisms, as well as between populations spanning species ranges, depending on differences in selection history, adaptive traits, and stress thresholds (Duarte et al., 2018; Miller et al., 2020; Pilczynska et al., 2016; Straub et al., 2019). In addition, extreme climatic events, such as bleaching events in corals, and marine heatwaves in macroalgae, have been highlighted as potentially significant drivers of directional selection and offer important sources of resilient genotypes that can contribute to the success of restoration and assisted evolution programs (Coleman, Minne, et al., 2020; Coleman, Wood, et al., 2020; Coleman & Wernberg, 2020; Morikawa & Palumbi, 2019; Wood, Marzinelli, et al., 2021).

‘Vibrant Underwater Scene with Yellowtail Fish’ by Brooke Laven used under a Pexels License

Range shifts in species and populations, driven by climate change and associated shifts in the physical ocean climate, are being increasingly reported in marine ecosystems (Bashevkin et al., 2020; Griffith et al., 2018; Vergés et al., 2014; Wilson et al., 2016). Range shifts pose a significant risk to genetic diversity in wild populations through new biotic interactions and shifts in trophic networks, population declines and bottlenecks, and the local extinctions of unique pools of genetic diversity (Garnier & Lewis, 2016; King et al., 2017; Pauls et al., 2013; Wróblewska & Mirski, 2018). In the marine environment, shifts in temperature, salinity, and ocean acidity are expected to result in population range shifts and subsequent declines in genetic diversity in a wide range of organisms (Buonomo et al., 2018; Donelson et al., 2019; Johannesson et al., 2020; Simon-Nutbrown et al., 2020; Wilson et al., 2019). In particular, the loss of trailing edge and ancient refugia populations, which can represent important sources of unique genetic diversity, has been highlighted as a potential threat to a number of marine species groups, including cold-temperate macroalgae and invertebrates (Assis et al., 2018; Hampe & Petit, 2005; Scheider, 2018). Depending on local climate velocities and species traits, it is expected that selection will be unable to keep pace with rapid climate change and that interventions such as assisted migration and gene flow will be needed to preserve patterns of endemism and adaptive potential in wild populations (Capblancq et al., 2020; Coleman & Wernberg, 2020; Duarte et al., 2018; Hoffmann et al., 2021; Novak et al., 2020; Wood, Marzinelli, et al., 2021).

Alternative text description provided below.
Figure 2. Conceptual representation of the principal causes of loss of genetic diversity in the marine environment, including relevant examples from around the world. (Photo credits: Alasdair O’Dell, Melinda Coleman, Wikipedia Creative Commons)

 

Image Text Version

Figure 2. Conceptual representation of the principal causes of loss of genetic diversity in the marine environment, including relevant examples from around the world.

Figure 2 is entitled “Conceptual representation of the principal causes of loss of genetic diversity in the marine environment, including relevant examples from around the world”. The content presents 7 principal causes of genetic diversity in marine environment, connecting examples to a world map. The 7 causes cover include: overharvesting, genetic homogenisation, hatchery release effects, extreme climate events, range shifts, habitat decline, and habitat fragmentation. Information on each is covered below:

Overharvesting
  • Population decline and reduced effective population side
  • Artificial selection against targeted phenotypes
Examples of overharvesting from around the world:
  • Location: Northwest Atlantic. Historic genetic bottlenecks and lasting changes in haplotype composition in gray seals (Cammen et al. 2018)
  • Location: Atlantic. Reduced effective population size in Atlantic cod since onset of industrial fishing (Kess et al. 2019)
Genetic Homogenisation
  • From translocation (e.g. aquaculture, wildlife trade)
  • From enhanced connectivity (e.g. shipping, manmade structures)
Examples of genetic homogenisation from around the world:
  • Location: Southern Ocean. Hybridisation and introgression from invasive blue mussels (Gardner et al. 2016)
  • Location: North Adriatic Sea. Enhanced connectivity in ascidians from man-made structures and ocean sprawl (Airoldi et al. 2015)
Hatchery Release Effects
  • Maladaptation and effective population size effects
  • From aquaculture and restocking efforts
Examples of hatchery release effects from around the world:
  • Location: Kagoshima Bay, Japan. Reduced genetic diversity in seabream from stock enhancement (Kitada et al. 2019)
  • Location: Atlantic Ocean. Altered age and size at maturation in wild salmon populations from introgression from domesticated genotypes (Bolstad et al. 2017)
Extreme Climate Events
  • Population and habitat loss, and associated genetic bottlenecks
  • From e.g. marine heatwaves (MHW), hurricanes, flash flooding, harmful algal blooms, and other climate driven events
Examples of extreme climate events from around the world:
  • Location: Indian Ocean. Genetic diversity loss and directional selection in macroalgae following a MHW (Gurgel et al. 2020; Coleman et al. 2020)
 Range Shifts
  • Population decline, loss of habitat, expansion effects, loss of unique genetic diversity (e.g. refugia)
  • From changing temperature, salinity, and ocean acidification
Examples of range shifts from around the world:
  • Location: North Atlantic Ocean. Loss of unique diversity from ancient refugia at the trailing edge of kelp distributions (Assis et al. 2018)
  • Location: Mediterranean Sea. Population loss and loss of isolated and unique diversity in populations of the brown algae Cystoseira sp. (Buonomo et al. 2018)
Habitat Decline
  • Habitat loss and population decline, loss of unique genetic diversity
  • From pollution, urbanisation, and other disturbances
Examples of habitat decline from around the world:
  • Location: North Atlantic Ocean (Canary Islands) and the oceans surrounding the tip of South Africa. Losses of genetic diversity in seagrass beds from fishing, construction, sediment disturbances, and hydrodynamic changes (Manent et al. 2019; phair et al. 2020)
Habitat Fragmentation
  • Isolation of populations leading to increased genetic drift and reduced resilience/adaptability
  • From urbanisation, ocean sprawl, and general habitat degradation
Examples of habitat fragmentation from around the world:
  • Location: Atlantic Ocean. Fragmentation induced genetic isolation and bottlenecks in mangrove forests (Ngeve et al. 2017)

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Text and Image Attribution

This text and image is from “Charting a course for genetic diversity in the UN Decade of Ocean Science.” © 2021 Alex Innes Thomson, Frederick I. Archer, Melinda A. Coleman, Gonzalo Gajardo, William P. Goodall-Copestake, Sean Hoban, Linda Laikre, Adam D. Miller, David O’Brien, Sílvia Pérez-Espona, Gernot Segelbacher, Ester A. Serrão, Kjersti Sjøtun, Michele S. Stanley and Evolutionary Applications published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd, which is licensed under CC BY 4.0, except for factors impacting the the loss of genetic diversity dot points, which has been added by Trish Corbett.

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Adapting to climate change: Genomics

Assisted migration (AM) is a conservation option in response to observed or anticipated climate change by intentional anthropogenic movement of climate-adapted individuals within or outside the species ranges (McLachlan et al., 2007; Ste-Marie et al., 2011; Vitt et al., 2010). Approaches for assisted migration include movement of resilient individuals within the species range to areas that have been hard-hit by changing climate, known as assisted gene flow, or movement of individuals outside of current ranges to new areas that have become or are projected to become suitable, known as assisted colonization (Figure 3).

Figure 3. Conceptual diagram of assisted migration and other conservation management practices.
Figure 3. Conceptual diagram of assisted migration and other conservation management practices. The assisted migration of individuals with adapted alleles in response to climate change includes assisted gene flow within the historical species range and assisted colonization, which establishes populations outside of the historical range to new areas that have become or are projected to become suitable. Individuals can also be moved for other management reasons unrelated to climate change including reintroduction to extirpated regions and genetic rescue to increase genetic diversity in isolated populations that are experiencing negative fitness consequences such as inbreeding depression.

There are potential risks and benefits relating to assisted migration application. Under a climate change scenario, there may be benefits including climate adaptation, ability of species to persist into the future and increase in population size. Alternatively, there are risks with this type of management strategy which can include the potential introduction of invasive species, loss of genetic diversity and potential introduction of disease (Table 1).

Table 1. Potential impacts of applying assisted migration as a conservation practice under climate change
Benefit or Risk  Potential impacts of assisted migration
Benefit Species persistence
Benefit Ecosystem stability
Benefit Promotes climate adaptation
Benefit Increases population size
Risk Introduction of potentially invasive species
Risk Loss of genetic diversity
Risk Introduction of maladaptive alleles
Risk Disrupts biotic interactions
Risk Introduction of disease
Text, Image and Table Attribution

This text, image and table content are from “Applying genomics in assisted migration under climate change: Framework, empirical applications, and case studies” © 2021 Zhongqi Chen, Lukas Grossfurthner, Janet L. Loxterman, Jonathan Masingale, Bryce A. Richardson, Travis Seaborn, Brandy Smith, Lisette P. Waits, Shawn R. Narum and Evolutionary Applications published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd,  which is licensed under CC BY 4.0, except for the text before Table 1, which has been added by Trish Corbett.

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Example: Assisted Migration Great Barrier Reef

Watch this video from the Australian Institute of Marine Science which looks at genes of heat tolerant corals on the Great Barrier Reef.

Activity: Test your Knowledge

Test your knowledge in the quiz below:

Activity Text Version

Activity: Test your Knowledge

This exercise invites readers to answer questions to test their knowledge, based on the adapting to climate change information above. Questions and answers are listed below.

Question 1

As a response to a changing climate, marine organisms are shifting from where they originally lived. Select all correct responses from:

  • Generally, marine species are moving poleward (or deeper) to cooler climates
  • Species will not be able to live beyond their critical temperatures (CTmin and CTmax)
  • Species with low genetic diversity will be more vulnerable to climate change
  • Species with high genetic diversity will be more vulnerable to climate change
Answers to question 1
  • Generally, marine species are moving poleward (or deeper) to cooler climates
  • Species will not be able to live beyond their critical temperatures (CTmin and CTmax)
  • Species with low genetic diversity will be more vulnerable to climate change
Question 2

Assisted migration…Select all correct responses from:

  • approach can include moving individuals to areas within their natural range that have been hit hard by climate change
  • can involve human intervention to move climate change adapted individuals within or outside their natural range
  • approach can include moving individuals into areas that are predicted to become suitable habitat
  • involves natural range shift and migration in response to climate change
Answers to question 2
  • approach can include moving individuals to areas within their natural range that have been hit hard by climate change
  • can involve human intervention to move climate change adapted individuals within or outside their natural range
  • approach can include moving individuals into areas that are predicted to become suitable habitat

End Activity Text Version

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