27 Choosing the future of marine ecosystems and biodiversity

We are at a critical point where immediate action is required to conserve marine ecosystems, as decisions made in the near future will shape the trajectory of marine biodiversity. Ward et al. (2022) outline two contrasting scenarios for 2030 and beyond: one in which decisive action is taken to protect and restore marine environments, and another in which current business-as-usual practices continue. Sections of the research are presented below outlining what is needed to achieve a sustainable marine future.

The fundamental challenge for the future is to safeguard marine ecosystem biodiversity, function, and adaptive capacity whilst continuing to provide vital resources for the global population. Ward et al., (2022) use foresighting/hindcasting to consider two plausible futures towards 2030: a business-as-usual trajectory (i.e. continuation of current trends), and a more sustainable but technically achievable future in line with the UN Sustainable Development Goals (Figure 1). They identify key drivers that differentiate these alternative futures and use these to develop an action pathway towards the desirable, more sustainable future. Key to achieving the more sustainable future will be establishing integrative (i.e. across jurisdictions and sectors), adaptive management that supports equitable and sustainable stewardship of marine environments. Conserving marine ecosystems will require recalibrating our social, financial, and industrial relationships with the marine environment. While a sustainable future requires long-term planning and commitment beyond 2030, immediate action is needed to avoid tipping points and avert trajectories of ecosystem decline. By acting now to optimise management and protection of marine ecosystems, building upon existing technologies, and conserving the remaining biodiversity, we can create the best opportunity for a sustainable future in 2030 and beyond.

Social Impetus

Social impetus for conservation has the potential to generate tremendous power for change. However, industrialisation and globalisation have resulted in a general loss of connection between people and environments and ecosystems (see also Kelly et al. 2021). Communities across the world depend directly and indirectly on marine ecosystems (see also Nash et al. 2021b); however, for many people conservation of marine biodiversity is a luxury, for example when the only options for accessing protein or generating a livelihood are based on unsustainable activities (Adams et al 2004; Cinner et al 2014; Glaser et  al 2018). Addressing inequality, poverty and social justice is therefore critical for influencing social impetus for marine conservation (see also Alexander et al 2021).

Photo © Patricia Corbett.

Advancing ocean literacy and empowering people to make informed choices that support marine conservation (e.g. through access to information) are particularly important for influencing social impetus (Kelly et al. 2021; Nash et al. 2021b). Where conservation efforts result in reduced delivery of benefits, substantial structural resistance to those efforts can occur (Alexander et  al. 2021). Social impetus for conservation is more likely to be strong where conservation outcomes can be linked to proximal economic benefits and societal survival (Kauder et al. 2018). However, linking conservation goals and strategies with social dependencies on the services marine ecosystems provide can be a powerful mechanism for creating collective action (Barnaud et al. 2018).

Pathway to achieve a sustainable future

Ward et al., (2022) suggest “five factors that we consider to be particularly important in determining capacity for action to address the drivers in a way that sets us on the pathway to a more sustainable future. These factors are:

1. Connection to marine ecosystems and behavioural change
2. Empowering local communities, Indigenous management and partnerships
3. Access to accurate, up-to-date information
4. Overcoming barriers to integrated, ecosystem-based management, and
5. Shifting towards a more equitable, circular economy.”

This text, Figure 1, and its associated caption are from “Safeguarding marine life: conservation of biodiversity and ecosystems” by Delphi Ward, Jessica Melbourne-Thomas, Gretta T. Pecl, Karen Evans, Madeline Green, Phillipa C. McCormack, Camilla Novaglio, Rowan Trebilco, Narissa Bax, Madeleine J. Brasier, Emma L. Cavan, Graham Edgar, Heather L. Hunt, Jan Jansen, Russ Jones, Mary-Anne Lea, Reuben Makomere, Chris Mull, Jayson M. Semmens, Janette Shaw, Dugald Tinch, Tatiana J. van Steveninck & Cayne Layton, which is licensed under CC BY 4.0, except for the introductory text and some sentence grammar changes, which has been added by Trish Corbett.